Little is known of the original blackjack counting systems. In Beat the Dealer, Ed Thorp discusses a number of the first systems developers who had colorful names like "Greasy John" and "Stem Smitty." They had privately worked out crude but effective blackjack strategies that they used to win their livelihoods from the Las Vegas blackjack tables.
Until the early sixties and the publication of Dr. Thorp's book, most casinos felt that blackjack systems were like all other gambling systems, a lot of bunk. Prior to Thorp, the only "card counting" system that was recognized by the casinos as valid was "casing the aces," in which a player would markedly increase his bet (say from $5 to $500) in the second half of the deck if no aces had been dealt in the first half. Crude as this counting technique was, it was effective and the casinos knew it. Unfortunately, it was extremely easy for the casinos to detect. Because it was such a weak method, and because the players who used it rarely followed anything resembling proven basic strategy, a huge betting spread was necessary for the system to gain an advantage over the house.
Then, in 1956, a group of mathematicians led by Roger Baldwin tediously applied the methods of statistical analysis to the game of blackjack and developed a basic strategy which they published in a technical journal for mathematicians. This strategy, if followed rigorously, would narrow the house edge, making blackjack close to a break-even proposition for the player over the long run. Though a colloquial version of this paper was later published in book form, few gamblers took notice. Gamblers wanted winning systems, not "break even" systems.
One person who took particular note of this technical paper was Dr. Edward O. Thorp, a mathematician. He saw that Baldwin's strategy had been devised on old-fashioned mechanical adding machines, but he had access to what, in the early sixties, was a sophisticated computer. He wrote a more precise program than had been used by the Baldwin group, and subsequently developed a more accurate strategy.
Blackjack is a difficult game to analyze mathematically because the depletion of the deck constantly alters the makeup of the remaining cards, constantly altering the probabilities of winning or losing. It occurred to Dr. Thorp that using a computer he could analyze just how the makeup of the deck affected the possible outcomes of the various hands. His method was unique. He wrote a program to analyze the best strategy and what a player can expect in the long run, assuming various cards had been removed from the deck. He noted that the player's chance of winning was dramatically increased when fives left the deck. In fact, to remove any of the "low" cards—2, 3,4, 5, 6, or 7—worked in the player's favor in varying degrees. On the other hand, if tens or aces were removed, the player's chances were badly hurt.
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When the cash-off-the-top has to go for protection, mob-operated casinos have to resort to "special measures" to insure profits, that is, to cheat. Gimmicked roulette tables, loaded dice that are switched in and out of the game, and "mechanics" (card sharks) that deal blackjack, are some of their instruments. With honest casinos (an oxymoron?), house percentages are already putting two strikes on the player, a gaffed casino's crooked game just about guarantees the sucker in an illegal casino a sure-thing strike-out.
Should you patronize illegal gambling operations? When it comes to casinos, the answer is a resounding NO! As for those of you out there who insist on betting on the nags, as well as you retards who throw away your money on numbers, I have to give a qualified Yes. Street-corner bookies will give you a better bang for your buck, as their odds are shorter than the odds of the track and OTBs. As for the numbers, the state will give you a flat-out rip-strong in Greenwich Village. Chinatown is reported to have a dozen or more, but they offer a menu of strange table games and cater strictly to a Chinese clientele.
Through the years I've had my share of experiences in illegal casinos. As a kid, when I'd go up to the Catskills with my family, I'd gaze in wonder at the magical machines with their colorful whirling wheels offering cherries, lemons, and bells, and that would from time-to-time pour out torrents of coins to the lucky player. What a thrill it was when I hit the jackpot for the first time, and was showered with what seemed then to be all the nickels in the world! I don't think even my thrill when I hit the Hacienda quarter progressive machine one Christmas day in Las Vegas for $5,000 could match that childhood memory.
In 1946, in Los Angeles for the first time, 1 couldn't resist the lure of going onto the Rex, a mob-owned gambling ship operating three miles offshore from Santa Monica. It was the first time I had ever seen a full casino in operation. (Outside of the slot machines, the Catskills only had roulette wheels in action, and that, was only in the evenings.)
On the Rex I timidly tried my luck at the blackjack table but, feeling uncomfortable with the new game, I quickly retreated to the banks of slot machines, with less luck than my Catskill initiation of years before. Aside from its full casino, my main memory of the Rex is what appeared to be one whole deck of toilets. The mob was forced to install them in order to comply with some harebrained maritime law regulation that was passed at that time solely as a harassment ploy for gambling ships.
My next experience with clandestine casinos was in the 1970s. My then-girl friend had had a recent operation and decided that, with a little financial help from me, the hot baths in Hot Springs, Arkansas would be conducive to her recovery. On a whim, I decided to fly down with her and see what Hot Springs was all about.
To my surprise and delight, the city was dotted with illegal full off 500-to-l payoff, while your friendly local numbers bank will give you 600-to-l, also a shameless rip-off, but at least a better one than the state's.
Better yet stay away from nags and numbers. If you must gamble, hit and run at your nearest casino. You might even come home with some of their cash in your pocket, an unlikely scenario if you play Lotto, numbers, and nags.
And playing in illegal casinos has its hazards. This was vividly illustrated when the New York Daily News reported on October 5, 1998 that three gunmen burst into an around-the-clock illegal gambling club in Brooklyn, shot one of the dealers, and robbed the players of all their cash and jewelry.
One of the gunmen was captured but the other two were able to escape with the loot.
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